America Head to Head (Online)

  • Event Start: 3rd November 2020, 8:00pm
  • Event Type:

US Election Head to Head : Who Will Win?

In 2016, polls and pundits were widely criticised for failing to predict the victory of Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton.  Among the handful to correctly predict a Trump victory were Lichtman and Norpoth.  Both heave each correctly predicted the outcome of the majority of presidential elections in recent history, yet, this year, they disagree.  On the day of the US election, we bring them together to debate who will win

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  • Prof. Helmut Norpoth  :  Electoral behaviour expert and Professor of Political Science at Stony Brook University.  His statistics-based Primary Model has correctly predicted five of the last six US presidential elections.  Prediction - Donald Trump
  • Prof. Allan Lichtman  :  History Professor at American University and pollster responsible for developing the Thirteen Keys model, a question-based approach that has successfully predicted the winner of every presidential race since 1984.  Prediction - Joe Biden